Baoer Zhao Reprinted from: New York Times Chinese website：
Nearly 400 million people are estimated to be under some form of lockdown in China as officials try to stop a fast-moving Omicron outbreak that is beginning to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy.
奥密克戎变异株导致新冠疫情在中国迅速蔓延，已开始给世界第二大经济体带来压力。随着官员们试图遏制疫情，估计中国有近4亿人目前处于某种形式的封控之下。
Hundreds of thousands of people have been sent to isolation facilities in China and millions more have been told to stay in their homes. Officials in dozens of cities have shut down normal daily life across the country in a race to track and trace the virus and stamp out China’s worst outbreak since the start of the pandemic.
中国已有数十万人被送进集中隔离设施，还有好几百万人居家隔离。为了尽快追踪病毒感染者及其接触者，扑灭自新冠病毒大流行开始以来中国最严重的一波疫情，官员们已停止了数十座城市的正常生活。
The Japanese bank Nomura has estimated that 373 million people in 45 cities are currently under some kind of lockdown, about a third of the population, accounting for the equivalent of around $7.2 trillion in annual gross domestic product.
据日本野村银行估计，目前有45座城市的3.73亿人处于某种形式的封控之下，约占全国人口的三分之一，每年贡献约7.2万亿美元的国内生产总值。
It’s part of a pandemic strategy that is increasingly at odds with China’s own economic growth expectations — one that has prompted economists and even the country’s premier to sound an alarm.
Experts are beginning to warn that China’s target of 5.5 percent economic growth for 2022 is now unrealistic because so much of daily economic life has ground to a halt. Li Keqiang, the country’s premier, alerted local officials to the growing economic cost of each new coronavirus outbreak on Monday urging authorities to balance pandemic control measures with a need to encourage growth.
专家们开始提醒，中国为2022年制定的5.5%的经济增长目标目前已不现实，因为很多日常经济生活已经停顿。中国总理李克强本周一提醒地方官员，要意识到每轮新冠疫情暴发所带来的越来越高的经济代价，并敦促地方当局平衡疫情防控与必要的经济增长鼓励措施。
“It is necessary to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development,” Mr. Li said, according to state media.
“要统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展，”李克强在官媒的报道中说。
China has reported more than 350,000 locally transmitted virus cases since its latest outbreak emerged in March. While that may not seem like a big number for any country that has battled an outbreak of the highly contagious Omicron variant, China is still pursuing a strategy that aims to eradicate the virus altogether, driven in part by concerns over its older, unvaccinated population. There are still some 40 million people over the age of 60 who have not had a Covid jab.
自从最近一轮疫情今年3月暴发以来，中国已累计通报了逾35万例本土传播的病例。对于任何一个经历了传染性极强的奥密克戎变异株疫情的国家来说，这个数字看起来一点也不高，但中国仍在追求旨在彻底根除新冠病毒的政策，驱动这个政策的部分原因是担心它未接种疫苗的老年人口。中国60岁以上的人群中，目前仍有约4000万人未接种疫苗。
China’s response to its latest outbreak is also beginning to have an impact on the world’s global supply chain, as factories that make iPhones, electric cars and semiconductors have had to stop operations. Some critical components cannot be trucked from ports to factories because of roadblocks and stringent Covid test requirements.
随着生产iPhone、电动汽车和半导体的工厂被迫停产，中国对最新这轮疫情采取的措施也开始对全球供应链产生影响。由于各地设置路障，加上严格的病毒检测要求，卡车无法将一些关键部件从港口运到工厂。
Pegatron, a major producer of Apple’s iPhone, said this week that two of its factories in China had stopped production “in response to Covid-19 prevention requirements from local governments.” The German auto parts maker Bosch and the automaker Tesla are among other global companies that have had to suspend operations as truck drivers are required to show negative test results within 48 hours in order to enter cities like Shanghai.
和硕联合科技是苹果iPhone的主要生产商，它在本周表示，“为响应地方政府的新冠防控要求”，在中国的两家工厂已经停产。由于需要进入上海等城市的卡车司机必须出示48小时以内的阴性检测结果，许多全球企业已被迫暂停生产，包括德国汽车零部件制造商博世和美国汽车制造商特斯拉。
In some places without any reported cases officials have put in place roadblocks, leading the State Council, China’s cabinet, to tell local authorities this week not to obstruct major roads, ports and airports.
在一些没有确诊病例的地方，官员们在公路上设置路障，导致国务院本周要求地方当局不得擅自关停主要道路、港口和机场。
The efforts to prevent an outbreak are creating such a big problem that economists have revised down their expectations for China’s economic output this year. One economist has gone so far as to predict that China could go into recession in the coming months.
中国的抗疫努力正在给经济造成如此大的问题，以至于经济学家们已下调了对中国今年经济产出的预期。一名经济学家甚至预测，中国经济会在未来几个月里萎缩。
Beijing has prioritized a zero-tolerance policy toward the coronavirus and outbreaks, said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.
野村证券首席中国经济学家陆挺说，中国政府已把针对新冠病毒疫情的清零政策作为优先事务。
“The problem is that when you set this kind of policy target, local governments will compete with each other,” he said. The consequence of this competition is that local governments will escalate their own pandemic control policies in order to ensure they don’t risk an outbreak that is difficult to get under control. For example, officials Guangzhou, a city of 15 million, began citywide testing after discovering 20 local cases last week.
“问题是，设定了这种政策目标后，地方政府会相互竞争，”陆挺说。这种竞争的结果是，地方政府会对防控措施层层加码，以确保不冒下让难以控制的疫情暴发的风险。例如，拥有1500万人口的广州市上周发现了20例本土传播的病例后，官员们已开始在全市范围内进行病毒检测。
“If all local governments are doing it this way then the whole economy would be in trouble,” Mr. Lu said, adding, “the whole system will amplify this zero Covid strategy.”
“如果所有的地方政府都这样做的话，整个经济会陷入困境，”陆挺说，“新冠清零政策将被整个系统放大。”
中国民主党中共侵权民营金融观察员
China Democracy Party, CCP Tyranny and Violation of Private Finance Observer
