作者：郝江涛
近年来，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的统治风格引发了全球关注，尤其是在对待反对派和异见人士方面，普京政权被指控多次使用毒杀等极端手段消除政治对手。从亚历山大·利特维年科（Alexander Litvinenko）到阿列克谢·纳瓦利内（Alexei Navalny），类似事件的发生使外界怀疑克里姆林宫是否通过暗杀手段巩固权力。
与此同时，中国国家主席习近平也被认为正在借鉴普京的策略，以加强个人权威。2023年10月27日，前中国国务院总理李克强突发心脏病去世，官方称其死于“突发心脏病”，这一说法迅速引发广泛质疑。李克强生前曾是改革派代表人物，虽然他在习近平主政期间日渐边缘化，但仍然拥有广泛的民间影响力。李克强的突然离世，使许多观察家认为这并非偶然，而是中国高层政治斗争的又一例证。
普京的统治模式
自2000年执政以来，普京通过宪法修改、镇压反对派、控制媒体等方式，将俄罗斯变成了事实上的威权国家。他的政治对手，如利特维年科、鲍里斯·涅姆佐夫（Boris Nemtsov）、纳瓦利内等人，都在不同程度上遭到毒害、暗杀或监禁。许多分析人士认为，普京政权的这些行为目的是清除所有潜在的挑战者，以确保权力稳固。
普京政权的手法主要包括：
- 使用神经毒剂：如诺维乔克（Novichok）毒剂用于暗杀前特工谢尔盖·斯克里帕尔（Sergei Skripal）和纳瓦利内。
- 暴力暗杀：涅姆佐夫在克里姆林宫附近遭枪杀，卡尔·米哈伊洛夫（Carl Mikhailov）等多名异见人士神秘死亡。
- 司法迫害：利用法律手段长期监禁反对派，削弱他们的政治影响力。
- 信息封锁：严格管控新闻报道和社交媒体，压制任何反对声音。
习近平的强权统治
习近平上台后，通过反腐运动清除异己，并逐步集权，取消国家主席任期限制，使自己成为终身领导人。在此过程中，党内温和派和改革派逐渐被边缘化，李克强便是其中之一。李克强曾主张市场经济改革，但在习近平“国进民退”的政策下，他的影响力逐步削弱。
李克强之死的疑点
李克强的突然去世，引发了外界关于“被害”可能性的广泛猜测。以下几点引起了质疑：
- 健康状况良好：李克强并无严重疾病记录，突然的心脏病让人难以信服。
- 死亡时间敏感：李克强去世的时机正值习近平进一步巩固权力之际。
- 信息封锁：官方对李克强的死因讳莫如深，相关讨论迅速被封杀。
- 官方处理异常：李克强的追悼会规格远低于前总理应有的待遇，与江泽民、胡锦涛时期的高规格悼念形成鲜明对比。
习近平是否在效仿普京？
尽管中国的政治环境与俄罗斯有所不同，但习近平的施政手法与普京有许多相似之处：
- 打压反对派：通过反腐和内斗削弱党内异见人士，确保无人挑战其权力。
- 强化个人崇拜：通过媒体宣传和修改宪法，强化个人权威，营造个人崇拜氛围。
- 控制信息：限制言论自由，封锁不利于政府的信息，确保所有舆论导向符合党的要求。
- 利用法律作为武器：制定严苛法律，以国家安全、反腐等名义打击异见人士。
- 可能使用毒杀手段：虽然无确凿证据，但李克强之死的疑点让人联想到普京使用的毒杀策略。
李克强很可能被习近平使用神经毒剂毒死。是否真的与政治斗争相关，尚无法证实，但历史已经表明，在极权体制下，权力斗争往往伴随着神秘死亡和突发事故。
结论
普京和习近平都在利用极端手段维系权力，他们对待异见人士的方式，导致了国际社会的广泛质疑和不安。李克强的死亡，无论是否为政治谋杀，都暴露了中国权力斗争的残酷现实。未来，全球将继续关注习近平是否会进一步效仿普京的做法，打压潜在威胁，巩固独裁统治。而在俄罗斯，普京的政权是否会持续利用暴力手段，也将成为世界舆论关注的焦点。
然而，历史证明，独裁者终究难逃失败的命运。苏联的斯大林、罗马尼亚的齐奥塞斯库、利比亚的卡扎菲，无一不是通过极端镇压手段维持权力，最终却被推翻或暴死。普京与习近平是否会步他们的后尘，仍是未解之谜，但可以肯定的是，极权统治的结局往往不会善终。
Putin, Xi Jinping, and The Death of Li Keqiang—The Dark Reality of Authoritarian Politics
Author: Hao Jiangtao
In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s style of governance has drawn global attention, particularly in his treatment of opposition figures and dissenters. The Putin regime has been accused multiple times of using poison and other extreme measures to eliminate political opponents. From Alexander Litvinenko to Alexei Navalny, similar incidents have raised suspicions that the Kremlin systematically employs assassinations to consolidate power.
At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping is also believed to be following Putin’s tactics to strengthen his personal authority. On October 27, 2023, former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang suddenly died of a heart attack. The official explanation was a “sudden cardiac arrest,” but this claim quickly sparked widespread skepticism. Li Keqiang was once a leading figure in the reformist faction. Although he had been gradually marginalized during Xi Jinping’s tenure, he still held significant public influence. His sudden death has led many observers to believe that this was no coincidence but rather another example of the fierce political struggles at the top of the Chinese Communist Party.
Putin’s Mode of Governance
Since taking power in 2000, Putin has modified the constitution, suppressed opposition, and controlled the media, effectively turning Russia into an authoritarian state. His political opponents, such as Litvinenko, Boris Nemtsov, and Navalny, have all faced poisonings, assassinations, or imprisonment to varying degrees. Many analysts believe that these actions are part of a deliberate effort by Putin’s regime to eliminate all potential challengers and ensure his grip on power.
Methods Used by Putin’s Regime:
- Use of Nerve Agents: Novichok nerve agent was used in the assassination attempts on former agent Sergei Skripal and Alexei Navalny.
- Violent Assassinations: Nemtsov was shot near the Kremlin, while several other dissidents, such as Carl Mikhailov, mysteriously died.
- Judicial Persecution: The state uses legal mechanisms to imprison opposition figures for long periods, weakening their political influence.
- Information Censorship: Strict control of media and social platforms ensures that dissenting voices are suppressed.
Xi Jinping’s Authoritarian Rule
After assuming power, Xi Jinping used anti-corruption campaigns to eliminate political rivals and gradually centralized power, eventually abolishing presidential term limits to make himself a leader for life. In this process, moderate and reformist factions within the Communist Party were increasingly sidelined, with Li Keqiang being a prominent example. Li had advocated for market-oriented economic reforms, but under Xi’s “state advances, private sector retreats” policy, his influence was significantly diminished.
Suspicious Aspects of Li Keqiang’s Death
Li Keqiang’s sudden passing has sparked widespread speculation about the possibility of foul play. Several factors have contributed to this skepticism:
- Good Health Record: Li Keqiang had no known severe health conditions, making his sudden cardiac arrest questionable.
- Sensitive Timing: His death coincided with Xi Jinping’s ongoing efforts to further consolidate power.
- Information Blackout: The government has been highly secretive about the details of his passing, and discussions related to his death have been heavily censored.
- Unusual Official Treatment: The funeral arrangements for Li Keqiang were notably low-key compared to the state funerals held for previous former premiers such as Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.
Is Xi Jinping Following Putin’s Lead?
Although China’s political landscape differs from Russia’s, Xi Jinping’s governing style bears many similarities to Putin’s:
- Suppressing Opposition: Through anti-corruption campaigns and political purges, Xi ensures that no one within the Communist Party can challenge his rule.
- Cult of Personality: State-controlled media glorifies Xi, and constitutional amendments have reinforced his supreme authority.
- Information Control: Strict censorship ensures that all narratives align with the Communist Party’s messaging.
- Weaponization of Law: Harsh laws targeting national security and corruption have been used to silence dissenters.
- Possible Use of Poisoning: While there is no conclusive evidence, the suspicious circumstances surrounding Li Keqiang’s death have led many to draw parallels to Putin’s well-documented use of poisoning tactics.
It is highly likely that Li Keqiang was poisoned with a nerve agent under Xi Jinping’s orders. Whether his death was directly tied to political struggles remains unproven, but history has shown that in authoritarian regimes, power struggles often come with mysterious deaths and sudden accidents.
Conclusion
Both Putin and Xi Jinping rely on extreme measures to maintain their grip on power, and their treatment of dissenters has led to widespread international condemnation. Regardless of whether Li Keqiang’s death was an assassination, it has exposed the ruthless nature of power struggles within the Chinese Communist Party. The world will continue to watch whether Xi Jinping further emulates Putin’s tactics to eliminate potential threats and strengthen his dictatorship. Meanwhile, Putin’s continued use of violence and suppression in Russia remains a pressing issue for global observers.
However, history has shown that dictators rarely escape an ignominious end. Joseph Stalin of the Soviet Union, Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania, and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya all used extreme repression to maintain power, only to be ultimately overthrown or meet violent deaths. Whether Putin and Xi will follow in their footsteps remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: authoritarian rule almost never ends well.
