作者： 郝江涛
《素书》有言：“务善策者无恶事，无远虑者有近忧。”意思是，专注于制定良策的领导者，不会遭遇恶劣的事态；而缺乏长远规划的人，往往会面临眼前的忧患。纵观历史，凡是缺乏战略眼光的统治者，往往会因目光短浅而导致国家陷入危机。在当代政治舞台上，习近平与特朗普的执政方式正好印证了这一古训。他们的政策不仅缺乏远见，甚至倒行逆施，导致国内外形势日益严峻，最终引发了经济、外交、社会等多重危机。
一、习近平的内外政策失衡：短视决策引发国内外困境
（1）经济政策：国进民退导致市场萎缩
习近平上台以来，提出“共同富裕”的口号，然而在具体执行过程中，国家对民营经济的打压却愈发严重，导致经济活力下降。最典型的案例是对阿里巴巴、腾讯等科技巨头的强力监管，导致资本市场大幅震荡，民营企业家信心受挫，投资意愿下降。此外，恒大、碧桂园等房地产巨头的暴雷，暴露了中国经济结构性问题的严重性，而政府缺乏有效的解决方案，导致房地产市场信心持续低迷。
同时，地方债务问题愈发突出，由于政府财政对房地产的高度依赖，房地产市场的萎缩直接导致地方政府财政困难，一些地方甚至出现了公务员降薪、财政资金短缺的问题。这些现象都表明，习近平政府的经济政策缺乏长远规划，短期的管控措施虽然可以暂时稳定局势，但长期来看，经济下行趋势难以逆转。
（2）外交政策：战狼外交导致国际孤立
在外交层面，习近平主导的“战狼外交”虽然强调中国的强硬立场，但实际上加剧了国际社会对中国的疑虑。2018年以来，中美关系急剧恶化，贸易战、科技战愈演愈烈，导致中国企业在国际市场上的生存环境愈加困难。华为、中芯国际等企业受到美国制裁，导致中国科技行业发展受阻，芯片供应链问题成为国家发展的重大瓶颈。
与此同时，中国与周边国家的关系也因南海争端、一带一路项目债务问题等不断恶化。斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦等“一带一路”沿线国家因无法偿还对华债务而陷入经济危机，使得中国的国际形象受到质疑，外界对中国的投资也开始减少。这些都显示出，中国政府的外交政策缺乏深思熟虑，短期内或许可以展现强硬姿态，但长期来看，却加剧了国家的孤立和经济困境。
二、特朗普的短视政策：极端民粹主义加剧美国衰落
（1）内政：种族主义和社会撕裂
特朗普在执政期间，极力煽动民粹主义，导致美国社会分裂进一步加剧。最典型的事件是2021年1月6日的国会山暴乱，这一事件直接冲击了美国的民主制度，也反映出特朗普政府在执政后期对极端势力的纵容。与此同时，他对移民政策的极端打压，如修建美墨边境墙、强行遣返移民等措施，不仅引发了国内外的批评，也未能真正解决美国的劳动力短缺问题，反而加剧了农业和制造业的用工困境。
此外，特朗普的反疫苗言论和不负责任的疫情防控政策，导致美国在新冠疫情期间成为全球感染和死亡人数最多的国家之一。他频繁与专家意见对立，宣传未经证实的疗法，例如建议使用消毒剂“杀死病毒”，这些言论不仅让科学界哗然，也让美国民众的健康受到严重威胁。
（2）外交：孤立主义削弱美国国际影响力
在外交方面，特朗普政府秉持“美国优先”的政策，退出了多个重要的国际组织，如《巴黎气候协定》《伊朗核协议》《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（TPP）等。这些决策虽然在短期内迎合了部分美国选民的利益，但从长期来看，严重损害了美国在全球事务中的领导地位。
此外，特朗普政府对传统盟友的态度也极为消极，例如对北约盟国施加财政压力，要求其承担更多军费开支，并与欧盟在贸易问题上发生冲突。这种短视的孤立主义政策，最终导致美国在国际事务中的影响力下降，使得中国和俄罗斯在全球治理中获得了更多空间。
三、倒行逆施的共同点：短视决策带来的深远影响
习近平和特朗普虽然执政理念不同，但在施政方式上却有许多相似之处。他们都倾向于以短期政治利益为导向，而非从长远角度制定政策。他们的施政方式都带有极端化倾向，试图通过强硬手段来控制国内局势，却忽略了政策的长期可行性和稳定性。最终的结果是：
- 经济上，中国因国进民退、科技封锁、房地产危机导致经济增长放缓，而美国因贸易战、疫情政策失误而遭遇经济动荡。
- 外交上，中国因战狼外交导致国际孤立，而美国因孤立主义政策削弱了自身的全球领导地位。
- 社会上，中国因加强言论管控、社会治理过度干预而引发民间不满，美国因种族问题和政治极端化导致社会撕裂。
这种短视决策不仅让他们各自的国家陷入困境，也对全球格局产生了深远影响。一个是全球第二大经济体，另一个是全球第一大经济体，他们的政策错误影响的不仅是本国公民，也让全球经济、政治、安全局势变得更加动荡不安。
结论
古语云：“务善策者无恶事，无远虑者有近忧。”领导者的责任不仅是解决当前的问题，更要为国家的长期发展奠定基础。然而，习近平与特朗普的施政方式却恰恰相反，他们缺乏真正的远见，更多地依赖短期的强硬手段来应对复杂的社会、经济和外交问题。最终，这种治理方式导致了国内矛盾加剧、国际关系紧张、经济增长受阻，给本国乃至全球带来了深远的负面影响。
历史证明，伟大的领导者应具备长远的战略眼光和务实的政策思维，而不是为了短期利益牺牲国家的长远发展。未来的世界将继续见证：那些真正能够“务善策”的领导者，才是带领国家走向繁荣和稳定的关键。
Those Who Devise Good Strategies Face No Disasters; Those Who Lack Foresight Suffer Imminent Worries—On the Misguided Policies of Xi Jinping and Donald Trump
The Su Shu states: "Those who devise good strategies face no disasters; those who lack foresight suffer imminent worries." This means that leaders who focus on formulating sound policies will not encounter adverse situations, whereas those who fail to plan for the future will inevitably face immediate troubles. Throughout history, rulers lacking strategic vision have often led their nations into crises due to their shortsightedness. In contemporary politics, the governance styles of Xi Jinping and Donald Trump exemplify this ancient wisdom. Their policies are not only devoid of long-term vision but also retrogressive, exacerbating domestic and international challenges, ultimately resulting in economic, diplomatic, and social crises.
I. Xi Jinping’s Domestic and Foreign Policy Imbalance: Shortsighted Decisions Leading to National and Global Challenge
1. Economic Policy: The State Expands as the Private Sector Shrinks, Stifling Market Growth
Since taking office, Xi Jinping has advocated for “common prosperity”, yet his administration’s execution of this policy has severely undermined the private sector. The crackdown on leading tech giants like Alibaba and Tencent through stringent regulations has caused significant market turmoil, eroded investor confidence, and diminished investment enthusiasm. Furthermore, the financial crises of major real estate developers such as Evergrande and Country Garden have exposed deep structural problems in China’s economy. The government’s lack of effective solutions has led to prolonged instability in the real estate sector.
Additionally, local governments have become increasingly burdened with debt, primarily due to their heavy reliance on real estate revenues. As the real estate market weakens, many local governments face financial distress, resulting in salary cuts for civil servants and budget shortfalls for public services. These trends indicate that Xi’s economic policies lack long-term planning—although short-term interventions may temporarily stabilize conditions, the broader economic downturn is difficult to reverse.
2. Foreign Policy: “Wolf Warrior” Diplomacy Leading to International Isolation
Under Xi’s leadership, China’s aggressive “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy has emphasized nationalistic assertiveness, but it has also deepened global suspicion and alienation. Since 2018, China-U.S. relations have deteriorated sharply, with escalating trade and technology wars severely restricting Chinese firms' access to international markets. Companies such as Huawei and SMIC have been sanctioned by the U.S., stalling China’s technological progress and creating critical bottlenecks in the semiconductor supply chain.
At the same time, China’s relationships with neighboring countries have also soured due to territorial disputes in the South China Sea and debt-related tensions in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Nations like Sri Lanka and Pakistan have found themselves in economic turmoil after accumulating unsustainable debt from Chinese-funded projects, leading to increased skepticism toward China's global ambitions. These developments illustrate that China’s foreign policy lacks strategic foresight—though its assertiveness may yield short-term gains, in the long run, it has deepened China’s international isolation and economic vulnerability.
II. Trump’s Shortsighted Policies: Populist Extremism Accelerating America’s Decline
1. Domestic Policy: Racial Division and Social Polarization
During his tenure, Trump aggressively promoted populist nationalism, exacerbating social divisions in the United States. The most glaring example was the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot, a direct assault on American democracy that highlighted the consequences of Trump's rhetoric and his tacit endorsement of extremist groups.
His immigration policies, such as constructing the U.S.-Mexico border wall and implementing harsh deportation measures, drew widespread criticism domestically and internationally. While framed as protective measures for American workers, these policies failed to address the country’s labor shortages, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, which depend heavily on immigrant labor.
Additionally, Trump’s mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated his disregard for scientific expertise and long-term public health planning. His promotion of unverified treatments, such as suggesting disinfectant as a possible cure, and his opposition to mask mandates contributed to the U.S. having the highest infection and death rates globally at the time. His administration’s failure to provide a coordinated response led to severe economic and social consequences.
2. Foreign Policy: Isolationism Undermining U.S. Global Leadership
Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign policy resulted in the U.S. withdrawing from multiple key international agreements, including the Paris Climate Accord, the Iran Nuclear Deal, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). While these moves appeased certain voter bases in the short term, they significantly weakened America's global influence and leadership in international governance.
Furthermore, his approach to alliances was notably antagonistic—he pressured NATO allies to increase their financial contributions and imposed tariffs on European goods, leading to heightened tensions with long-standing partners. This shortsighted isolationism ultimately diminished America’s standing on the global stage, creating a power vacuum that China and Russia eagerly sought to fill.
III. The Commonality of Their Misguided Policies: The Long-Term Impact of Shortsighted Governanc
Despite their ideological differences, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump share a similar approach to governance: prioritizing short-term political gains over long-term national stability. Both leaders have demonstrated a tendency toward extreme measures, attempting to consolidate power through aggressive policies without considering their broader and lasting consequences.
- Economically, China suffers from slowed growth due to overregulation, technological restrictions, and a real estate crisis, while the U.S. faces economic instability due to trade wars and mismanagement of the pandemic.
- Diplomatically, China’s Wolf Warrior diplomacy has led to increased global isolation, while Trump’s isolationist policies weakened America’s international leadership and alliances.
- Socially, China’s heightened surveillance and censorship have stifled dissent, while Trump’s endorsement of extreme populism has fueled racial tensions and political polarization.
This pattern of shortsighted decision-making has not only harmed their respective countries but also contributed to global instability. As the world’s two largest economies, the repercussions of their policy missteps extend far beyond their national borders, affecting international trade, security, and diplomacy.
Conclusion
The ancient wisdom states: “Those who devise good strategies face no disasters; those who lack foresight suffer imminent worries.” The responsibility of a national leader extends beyond addressing immediate challenges; it requires laying the foundation for sustained long-term prosperity. However, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump’s governing styles reflect the opposite approach—rather than crafting visionary policies, they have relied on aggressive short-term tactics that have led to domestic strife, diplomatic tensions, and economic distress.
History has consistently shown that true leadership requires foresight, pragmatism, and a commitment to long-term national development. The future will continue to demonstrate that only those who are truly capable of “devising good strategies” can lead their nations toward lasting prosperity and stability.
