中国民主党全委会美国委员会

As the rest of the world learns to live with Covid-19, China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, wants his country to keep striving to live without it — no matter the cost.

随着世界其他地方学会与新冠病毒共存，中国最高领导人习近平要求他的国家坚持清零政策——不惜一切代价。

China won a battle against its first outbreak in Wuhan, Mr. Xi said last week, and “we will certainly be able to win the battle to defend Shanghai,” he added, referring to the epicenter of the current outbreak in China.

他在上周表示，新冠病毒在武汉暴发之初，中国曾成功地遏制了病毒传播，还说，我们“也一定能够打赢大上海保卫战”。

But pressure is mounting for a change to the zero-Covid strategy that has left Shanghai at a standstill since March, kept hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens under lockdown nationwide and is now threatening to bring Beijing to a halt.

但要求改变清零政策的压力越来越大。自今年3月以来，该政策导致上海陷入了停顿，让全国数亿民众处于封控状态，现在还可能会让北京停摆。

This week, the World Health Organization called China’s current pandemic strategy “unsustainable.” An economist summarized it as “zero movement, zero G.D.P.” Multinational companies have grown wary of further investments in the country.

上周，世界卫生组织称，中国目前应对大流行的做法“不可持续”。一名经济学家将中国的做法总结为“零活动，零GDP”。跨国公司对于在这里的进一步投资越来越谨慎。

For more than two years, China kept its Covid numbers enviably low by doggedly reacting to signs of an outbreak with testing and snap lockdowns. The success allowed the Communist Party to boast that it had prioritized life over death in the pandemic, unlike Western democracies where deaths from the virus soared.

两年多来，中国对新冠病毒严防死守，一有疫情迹象，就马上进行大规模核酸检测和快速封控，将感染控制在令人羡慕的低水平。这一成功让中共得以自夸在疫情中把生命放在第一位，不像西方民主国家那样，让那么多人死于新冠。

More transmissible variants like Omicron threaten to dent that success, posing a dilemma for Mr. Xi and the Chinese Communist Party. Harsher lockdowns have been imposed to keep infections from spreading, stifling economic activity and threatening millions of jobs. Chinese citizens have grown restless, pushing back against being forced to stay home or to move into grim, government-run isolation facilities.

奥密克戎等更具传染性的变异株有可能破坏这一成功，给习近平和中共制造了一种两难境地。为防止病毒蔓延，中国采取了更严厉的封锁措施，遏制了经济活动，威胁到数百万个工作岗位。中国老百姓已经不耐烦了，开始反对被迫呆在家中或被送进政府设置的条件极差的集中隔离设施。

Yet abandoning the strategy risks a surge in deaths, especially among the country’s tens of millions of unvaccinated older people. Researchers this week warned of a “tsunami” of deaths if the virus surged unchecked, leaving China’s fragile national hospital system overwhelmed and raising the possibility of social unrest.

然而，放弃清零政策可能会导致死亡人数激增，尤其是在中国好几千万尚未接种疫苗的老年人中。研究人员本周警告，如果对病毒感染病例激增不加以控制的话，将会出现死亡“海啸”，让中国脆弱的国家医疗系统不堪重负，增加社会动荡的可能性。

Fearing any dissent during a politically important year for Mr. Xi, China’s censors have moved quickly to muffle calls for a change in course on Covid-19. The head of the World Health Organization, whose recommendations China once held up as a model, was silenced this week when he called on the country to rethink its strategy.

对习近平来说，这在政治上是相当重要的一年，由于担心出现任何异见，中国审查人员迅速压制所有要求改变清零政策的呼声。世卫组织总干事的建议曾被中国奉为圭臬，他上周呼吁中国重新考虑清零政策后也遭到了审查。

Photographs and references to Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the W.H.O., were promptly scrubbed from the Chinese internet after the statement. The foreign ministry responded by calling Mr. Tedros’s remarks “irresponsible,” and accusing the W.H.O. of not having a “proper understanding of the facts.”

世卫组织总干事谭德塞(Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus)说了中国的做法“不可持续”后，中国互联网上有关他的照片和提及他这个说法的内容被迅速删除。中国外交部称谭德塞的言论“不负责任”，并指责世卫组织“对事实缺少恰当了解”。

China’s state-controlled media has also glossed over the draconian measures officials have deployed to deal with outbreaks. This week, as some authorities in Shanghai erected new fences around quarantine zones, boarded up more homes and asked residents not to leave their apartments, state media painted a picture of a city slowly returning to normal.

中国官方控制的媒体也极力掩饰政府应对疫情所采取的严厉措施。上周，随着上海当局在封控区周围设置新围栏，把更多的住宅封起来，要求居民不出家门后，官媒的报道却描述这座城市在慢慢恢复正常。

One article described the “hustle and bustle of city life” returning, while another focused on statistics for how many stores had reopened.

一篇文章说，“熙熙攘攘的城市生活”已在回归，而另一篇报道则强调了重新开业的商店数量。

But rosy state media reports cannot hide a looming challenge facing Mr. Xi.

但官媒的乐观报道无法掩盖习近平面临的迫在眉睫的挑战。

To date, the coronavirus has claimed 569 lives and infected about 777,565 people since March 1, according to official statistics. If unchecked, the outbreak could lead to 112 million infections and nearly 1.6 million deaths between now and July, according to a study from researchers at Fudan University in Shanghai and Indiana University in the United States.

据中国的官方统计，自3月1日以来，新冠病毒已导致569人死亡，777565人感染。上海复旦大学和美国印第安纳大学的研究人员做的一项研究称，如果对疫情不加以控制的话，从现在到今年7月，新冠病毒可能会导致1.12亿人感染，近160万人死亡。

“The situation is pretty grim, and the study shows clearly the huge importance in vaccinating and boosting the elderly,” said Marco Ajelli, an infectious disease modeler at Indiana University’s School of Public Health, who contributed to the study.

“情况相当严峻，这项研究清楚地显示了老年人接种疫苗、打加强针的巨大重要性，”印第安纳大学公共卫生学院传染病模型专家、参与了该研究的马可·阿耶利说。

Less than half of people aged 70 or older in Shanghai have received two jabs, according to the study. Across China, the number is 72 percent, a figure that health experts say should be 95 percent or higher. In dozens of cities where there have been outbreaks or partial lockdowns in anticipation of rising cases, resources have been devoted to stamping out the virus rather than to vaccinations.

据这项研究，上海70岁及以上的人群中，只有不到一半的人打过两剂疫苗。全国范围的这个数字是72%，卫生专家说，这个数字应该在95%以上。在几十个因疫情暴发，或预计感染病例会增加而采取了部分封控措施的城市，资源被投入到消灭病毒上去，而不是接种疫苗。

Currently the vaccines available in China are also not as potent as foreign ones available in other countries. Chinese vaccines use traditional technology that has been shown to be less effective than breakthrough mRNA technology. China said last year that it was close to approving BioNTech, a German mRNA shot made in partnership with Pfizer, but that has not happened. Several Chinese companies are in the testing phase of a homegrown mRNA option, and China also recently approved for emergency use a Covid-19 antiviral pill made by Pfizer called Paxlovid.

中国目前的国产疫苗也不如外国疫苗效果好。事实已经证明，使用传统技术的国产疫苗不如使用了突破性技术的mRNA疫苗有效。中国去年曾表示，很快会批准德国生物新技术公司的疫苗（与辉瑞合作生产mRNA疫苗的德国公司），但至今没有下文。几家国内公司研发的mRNA疫苗目前处于临床试验阶段，中国最近还批准了辉瑞生产的抗病毒药物Paxlovid用于紧急治疗。

Administering three vaccine shots, using antiviral therapies and offering more effective vaccines could help China find a path out of zero Covid, Mr. Ajelli said.

阿耶利说，完成三剂疫苗的接种、使用抗病毒药物、提供更有效的疫苗等做法，可以帮助中国找到走出清零政策的道路。

Investors and business leaders worry that China’s rigid adherence to its zero-Covid policy could send the economy into free fall. “It is high time for the government to change its strategy,” said Fred Hu, a prominent Chinese investor. The benefits of zero Covid no longer outweigh the economic costs, he added. “Sticking to the zero-Covid strategy would decimate its economy and undermine public confidence.”

投资者和商界领袖担心，中国严格坚持清零政策，可能会导致经济出现自由落体式的下滑。“现在是政府改变政策的时候了，”知名投资人胡祖六说。他还表示，清零的益处已不再大于其经济代价。“坚持清零政策将摧毁中国经济，削弱公众信心。”

By one estimate, nearly 400 million people in 45 cities have been under some form of lockdown in China in the past month, accounting for $7.2 trillion in annual gross domestic product. Economists are concerned that the lockdowns will have a major impact on growth; one economist has warned that if lockdown measures remain in place for another month, China could enter into a recession.

有人估计，在过去一个月里，中国45个城市的近4亿人处于某种形式的封控状态，涉及相当于7.2万亿美元的年度国内生产总值。经济学家担心，封控措施将对经济增长产生重大影响；一名经济学家警告，如果封控措施再持续一个月的话，中国经济可能会陷入衰退。

European and American multinational companies have said they are discussing ways to shift some of their operations out of China. Big companies that increasingly depend on China’s consumer market for growth are also sounding the alarm. Apple said it could see a $4 billion to $8 billion hit to its sales because of the lockdowns.

欧美的跨国公司表示，他们正在讨论如何将部分业务转移出中国。越来越依赖中国消费市场来实现增长的大公司也敲响了警钟。苹果表示，由于封控，公司的销售额可能会减少40亿至80亿美元。

Howard Schultz, the interim chief executive of Starbucks, said the company has “virtually no ability to predict our performance in China.”

星巴克的临时首席执行官霍华德·舒尔茨表示，公司“几乎没有能力预测我们在中国的表现”。

Foreign investments have nearly dried up, and some projects have been on hold for more than two years because pandemic restrictions have made it essentially impossible for foreign executives to visit China. When executives at multinational companies appeal to senior Chinese officials, their calls are met with silence, said Michael Hart, the president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

外国的投资几乎枯竭，一些项目已搁置了两年多，因为限制新冠病毒大流行的措施让外国高管基本上无法前往中国。中国美国商会总裁何迈可(Michael Hart)说，跨国公司的高管们向中国高级官员寻求帮助时也得不到回应。

“China has been very steadfast in its views that it has the right strategy and it doesn’t want people to criticize it,” Mr. Hart said.

“中国一直非常坚定地认为本国的政策正确，不想让人们批评其做法，”何迈可说。

Some of China’s top leaders have also started to share concerns about the economy. China’s premier, Li Keqiang, described the employment situation as “complicated and grave” as migrant workers and college students struggle to find and keep jobs during lockdowns.

中国的一些高层领导人也开始在公开场合表示对经济的担忧。随着城市陷入封控，农民工和大学生很难找到或保住工作，中国总理李克强称就业形势“复杂严峻”。

Even as daily virus cases in Shanghai are steadily dropping, authorities have tightened measures in recent days following Mr. Xi’s call last week to double down. Officials also began to force entire residential buildings into government isolation if just one resident tested positive.

就在上海每天的新冠确诊病例稳步下降之际，在习近平上周号召坚持清零后，当局却收紧了封控措施。只要有一个居民核酸检测阳性，整栋楼的居民都要被迫前往政府的集中设施隔离。

The new measures are harsher than those early on in the pandemic and have been met with pockets of unrest, previously rare in China where citizens have mostly supported the country’s pandemic policies.

这些新措施比新冠病毒暴发初期的更加严厉，并已引发了一些骚乱。中国以前很少看到骚乱，因为老百姓大多支持政府的抗疫政策。

In one video widely circulated online before it was taken down by censors, an exasperated woman shouts as officials in white hazmat suits smash her door down to take her away to an isolation facility. She protests and asks them to give her evidence that she has tested positive. Eventually she takes her phone to call the police.

在一段被审查人员删除前曾在网上广为流传的视频中，几名穿着白色防护服的警察将一名女子的家门砸开，要把她送进隔离设施，该女子愤怒地大喊。她抗议，并要求他们拿出她核酸检测阳性的证据。最后，她拿起手机报警。

“If you called the police,” one of the men replies, “I’d still be the one coming.”

“你报警也是我来，”其中一名警察对她说。