中国民主党全委会美国委员会

The wager was supposed to be a no-brainer. China was reopening after nearly three years of pandemic lockdowns, and investors expected that its economy, the world’s second largest, would come roaring back to life. Chinese stocks soared.

原本下这样的赌注根本不用考虑。在经历了近三年的大流行封锁之后，中国重新开放，投资者预计这个世界第二大经济体将迅速复苏。中国股市会出现飙升。

But that bet has soured. This week, Chinese stocks that are traded in Hong Kong sank briefly into a bear market, after losing more than 20 percent of their value from a high in January. Stocks on the mainland are also in the red for the year.

但现在已经不是那么回事了。本周，在香港交易的中国股票短暂进入熊市，从1月的高位下跌逾20%。内地股市今年也在下跌。

The declines reflect a fizzling optimism in the viability of the post-Covid recovery in China, which has long been a driver of global growth. Despite the continuing geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, the economic and business ties between the two countries remain intricately linked.

长期以来，中国一直是全球经济增长的推动力，但股市下跌反映出人们对中国在新冠后复苏的可行性越来越不乐观。尽管中美之间的地缘政治局势持续紧张，两国在经济和商业上仍然有着千丝万缕的联系。

“All the signals from China are pointing to a bumpy, faltering economic rebound,” said Tina Teng, an analyst with CMC Markets in Auckland, New Zealand.

新西兰奥克兰CMC Markets的分析师滕枭表示：“来自中国的所有信号都表明经济的反弹磕磕绊绊、举步维艰。”

Beijing is contending with weaker-than-expected consumer spending, slowing home sales and a manufacturing sector in flux. A weaker currency is compounding the problems. It remains uncertain what, if any, action the Chinese government might take to support growth.

北京正在应对低于预期的消费者支出、放缓的房屋销售和制造业的变幻莫测。走弱的货币使问题更加复杂。目前尚不确定中国政府可能采取何种行动——如果有的话——来支持增长。

Last year, numerous Covid lockdowns took a heavy toll on China’s economy. It grew 3 percent, a rate that was one of the slowest in decades, well short of Beijing’s own target and slower than that of 2021.

去年，中国因新冠疫情多次实施封锁措施，对经济造成了沉重打击。经济增幅为3%，这是几十年来最慢的增速之一，远低于北京自己的目标，也低于2021年的增长速度。

The authorities gave the stock market a jolt last fall with stimulus measures designed to support the property sector. Another bump followed in December, with the abrupt end of the strict “zero Covid” policy. Stocks entered the new year on an upward trajectory and peaked toward the end of January.

去年秋天，当局出台了旨在支持房地产行业的刺激措施，给股市带来了震动。随着严格的“清零”政策突然结束，12月又出现了一次冲击。股市以上升趋势进入新的一年，并在1月底达到顶峰。

In the first three months of the year, China’s economy grew 4.5 percent — with consumers responsible for the bulk of the gain — and appeared to be on track for a recovery. Spending has been strong in recent months, notably in the luxury and food and beverage sectors, but increasingly hasn’t met investors’ expectations. A high rate of youth unemployment further darkens the outlook.

今年前三个月，中国经济增长了4.5%（其中大部分增长来自消费），而且似乎正步入复苏轨道。近几个月支出一直强劲，尤其是在奢侈品和食品饮料行业，但越来越达不到投资者的预期。青年人的高失业率使前景更加黯淡。

While countries in the West contend with inflation, China is flirting with the opposite and potentially more malign force of deflation, or persistently low prices that drag on the economy by dampening company profits and wages.

在西方国家与通货膨胀作斗争的同时，中国正在应对与之相反、可能更具伤害性的通货紧缩，即因抑制公司利润和工资导致持续低价而拖累经济。

“Domestic demand is still weak,” Ms. Teng said.

“国内需求仍然疲软，”滕枭说。

Consequently, many economists have dialed back their expectations in recent weeks, contributing to the stock market decline. But a number of analysts, including those at the investment banks Nomura and Barclays, still expect China’s gross domestic product this year to increase at a faster rate than the government’s forecast, which calls for 5 percent growth.

因此，最近几周许多经济学家调低了他们的预期，导致股市下跌。但一些分析师——包括野村证券和巴克莱银行的分析师——仍预计今年中国国内生产总值的增速将高于政府预测的5%。

Projections for the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, are lower, but American stocks are faring much better than China’s. The S&P 500, a broad index of stocks, is up about 12 percent this year.

人们对世界上最大的经济体美国的预测较低，但美国股市的表现远好于中国。标准普尔500指数今年上涨了约12%。

Recent decisions by the Communist Party of China and its top leader, Xi Jinping, have hurt stock market sentiment. A crackdown on consulting and advisory firms with overseas ties has spooked some foreign businesses and investors, reigniting questions about the viability of international firms doing business in China.

中共及其最高领导人习近平最近的决定伤害了股市情绪。打击与海外有关联的咨询公司令一些外国企业和投资者感到恐慌，再次引发人们质疑国际公司在中国开展业务的可行性。

“The recovery has stalled, due partly to Beijing’s inability to boost confidence among consumers and business investors,” Nomura economists wrote in a report last month. “As disappointment kicks in, we see a rising risk of a downward spiral, resulting in weaker activity data, rising unemployment, persistent disinflation, falling market interest rates and a weaker currency.”

“复苏已经停滞，部分原因是北京无法提振消费者和企业投资者的信心，”野村证券的经济学家上个月在一份报告中写道。“随着失望情绪的出现，我们看到螺旋式下降的风险上升，导致活动数据疲软、失业率上升、持续通货紧缩、市场利率下降和货币走软。”

But some observers argue that investors have just misjudged the reopening of the economy in China — an event that has no historical parallel. And they have missed a shift in how the authorities prioritize national security concerns over economic ones.

但一些观察人士认为，投资者只是对中国经济这样史无前例的重新开放做出了误判。并且他们忽视了当局将国家安全问题置于经济问题之上的转变。

“The mentality of the way the Chinese economy is managed is completely different,” said Chris Leung, the chief China economist at DBS Bank. The authorities, he added, are not as likely as they were in the past to respond to a stock market slump by taking aggressive steps to drive up share prices. Policymakers in Beijing are focused more on economic bellwethers like manufacturing. And by those measures, Mr. Leung said, the Chinese economy “is not too out of line.”

“中国经济管理方式的思路已经完全不同了，”星展银行首席中国经济学家梁兆基说。他还说，当局不太可能像过去那样，通过采取积极措施推高股价来应对股市暴跌。北京的政策制定者更关注制造业等经济的风向标。梁兆基说，从这个角度看，中国经济“并没有太离谱”。

On Thursday, a private-sector survey showed that factory activity in China had picked up in May, in contrast to official data released a day earlier that showed manufacturing had continued to contract. The mixed signals have broader implications, because manufacturing in China is closely linked to its exports, which, in turn, are an indicator of global demand. A sustained increase in manufacturing would help bump up China’s employment rate, its consumer spending and, eventually, its stock market.

周四，一项针对民营部门的调查显示，中国的工厂活动在5月有所回升，这与一天前发布的官方数据显示制造业继续收缩形成鲜明对比。这种不一致的信号具有更广泛的影响，因为中国的制造业与出口密切相关，而出口又是全球需求的指标。制造业的持续增长将有助于提振中国的就业率、消费者支出，并最终提振股市。

For now, investors continue to offload Chinese stocks. The biggest losers this year include the online retailer JD.com and the hot pot chain Haidilao, both down over 20 percent this year. That helped push down Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to the lowest closing level of the year on Thursday. After a rally on Friday, the index is about 17 percent lower than its high in January. The CSI 300 Index, which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, is down about 8 percent since peaking in January.

目前，投资者继续抛售中国股票。今年最大的输家包括网上零售商京东和火锅连锁店海底捞，今年均下跌超过20%，促使香港恒生中国企业指数周四跌至年内最低收盘水平。在周五反弹后，该指数比1月的高点低了约17%。追踪沪深两市最大公司的沪深300指数自1月见顶以来下跌了约8%。

The real estate sector continues to be a source of anguish for investors. Property sales from the 100 biggest firms fell about 14 percent in May from the previous month, according to data released this week by China Real Estate Information Corporation.

房地产行业继续令投资者感到痛苦。中国房地产信息集团本周发布的数据显示，5月100家最大公司的房地产销售量较上月下降了约14%。

China’s housing problems — developers that are deep in debt and borrowers who are left with half-finished apartments — have led to expectations that the Chinese central bank will feel compelled to cut rates this year.

中国的房地产问题——开发商深陷债务，留给贷款买房者的是未完工的公寓——导致人们预期中国央行今年将不得不降息。

Both Nomura and Barclays forecast that China will post significantly higher economic growth — of almost 8 percent — in the three months ending in June. Growth for the next two quarters of the year will then moderate toward levels seen earlier this year, according to both projections.

野村证券和巴克莱银行都预测，在截至6月的三个月中，中国的经济增长率将显着提高——接近8%。根据这两家公司预测，今年接下来两个季度的增长将放缓至今年早些时候的水平。

Along the way, analysts expect stock market performance to improve. “Excessive pessimism usually corrects itself,” Mr. Leung said.

在此过程中，分析师预计股市表现会有所改善。“过度悲观的情绪通常会自我修正，”梁兆基说。